Insights & Analysis
A straight-to-the-point monthly summary of important regulatory discussions and changes in Japan's power market.
In the September 2026 issue:
- Summary of METI, OCCTO, and other committee meetings
- Mid- to long-term market design discussions
- Proposed new frequency-control and fault-ride-through requirements
- Planned wheeling charge increase
- METI power business license and registration changes
- Nuclear power plant operational status updates
- ...and more
The next issue will be released on October 15, 2026.
Enehub Charts of the Week
The price of non-FIT NFCs in a fiscal year’s first-round auction neared the ¥1.3/kWh ceiling for the first time. While non-FIT renewable NFCs traded at ¥1.21/kWh in FY2026’s first auction, non-FIT non-renewable NFCs cleared at ¥1.20/kWh. Buy bids reached 12.26TWh for non-FIT renewable NFCs, more than six times the 1.98TWh offered. For non-FIT non-renewable NFCs, the oversubscription was even more pronounced with the 11.15TWh worth of bids exceeding more than 50 times the 200GWh available.
FY2025 marked the tenth year since Japan completed the liberalization of its power retail market with the opening of the low-voltage segment to suppliers other than the incumbent utilities. During the year, “new retailers” accounted for about 22% of total supply by volume, ranging from 10% in the Hokuriku TSO area to 33% in Tokyo. In the extra high-voltage segment, which opened to competition 16 years earlier in 2000, the national share was just 11%, ranging from approximately 3% in Chubu and Hokuriku to 22% in Tokyo.
Based on TSOs’ latest forecasts, FY2035 solar curtailment rates are expected to be highest in Hokkaido, Hokuriku, and Tohoku. FIT plants will be affected disproportionately due to an upcoming rule change that curtails them before FIP and other non-FIT assets. According to Hokkaido’s grid operator, more than 50% of the area’s potential FIT solar output during the year would be curtailed in the scenario reviewed by METI.
