
On January 22, 2025, OCCTO released its FY2025 nationwide power demand forecast covering the 10 years up to FY2034. Overall, it expects peak demand to grow at 0.4% CAGR between FY2024 and FY2034.
While energy saving measures and declining population are expected continue driving power demand down, OCCTO expects those factors to be overshadowed by power demand increase driven by the construction of new data centers and semiconductor factories.
It expects peak demand to grow 1% from the FY2024 summer peak of 157.6GW to 159.2GW in FY2025 and to 164.6GW in FY2034. Consumption is expected to grow 0.3% from 805.9TWh in FY2024 to 808.6TWh in FY2025 and to 852.4TWh in FY2034. In line with the main drivers, residential demand is expected to steadily decrease over the next decade, commercial demand is expected to remain flat, and industrial demand is expected to surge.
The forecast expects data center- and semiconductor-related peak demand to go up from 560MW (470MW and 90MW) in FY2025 to 5.38GW (84.4GW and 0.98GW) in FY2030 and to 7.15GW (6.16GW and 0.99GW) in FY2034. With that, the two industries are expected to account for 4.34% of FY2034 total peak demand, up from 0.35% in FY2025.
Chubu and Shikoku are the only two regions expected to have lower peak demand in FY2034 than in FY2024. Chugoku, Hokkaido, and Tokyo are expected to see the most significant growth with CAGRs of 0.7%, 1.1% (summer), and 1.0% between FY2034 and FY2034, respectively.
The February 2025 issue of The Japan Power Industry Executive report will cover this topic in greater detail, alongside other key regulatory, policy, and market developments.