Insights & Analysis
A straight-to-the-point monthly summary of important regulatory discussions and changes in Japan's power market.
In the September 2026 issue:
- Summary of METI, OCCTO, and other committee meetings
- Proposed non-rooftop solar FIT/FIP support
- Instruments qualifying for advance energy procurement requirement
- Continued mid- to long-term market design discussions
- METI power business license and registration changes
- Nuclear power plant operational status updates
- ...and more
The next issue will be released on November 16, 2026.
Enehub Charts of the Week
Bids awarded in FY2026’s first solar auction ranged from ¥0.00/kWh, offered by developers to secure the FIP scheme’s balancing subsidy that is paid regardless of the premium, to ¥7.89/kWh. Although no projects were awarded at the ¥9.60/kWh ceiling price, awarded FIP prices were generally higher than in the previous round.
As of the end of 2025, Japan had installed 78GW of solar capacity, leaving it 25.5GW-39.6GW short of its 2030 target. With only an additional 2.6GW certified under FIT/FIP but not yet commissioned, and government support gradually being scaled back, achieving the target will be challenging and will depend heavily on developers’ ability to secure PPAs and bring projects online at a much faster pace. While only 37% of the country’s 17.9GW onshore wind target had been commissioned as of the end of 2025, including FIT/FIP-certified projects that had yet to be built raises the figure to about 90%.
With thermal power plant phase-outs expected to accelerate in the coming years, OCCTO forecasts Tokyo and Tohoku reserve margins could fall as low as 1.6% in the summer of FY2029 under its most severe weather scenario. Conditions are expected to improve from FY2030 onward as new capacity, including LNG-fired plants awarded through long-term decarbonization auctions, enters service.
