Monthly Report

METI revises FY2024 curtailment forecast significantly downward for most TSO areas

September 25, 2024
Renewable Generation
Japan saw less renewable output curtailment this fiscal year to date than originally forecasted by METI.

At a meeting of the Power Grid Working Group held on September 18, 2024, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) revealed its revised renewable output curtailment forecast for this fiscal year.

With curtailment this spring and summer having been significantly lower than expected, METI now expects the nationwide total for the fiscal year to reach approximately 2.12TWh, 14% less than the originally forecasted 2.42TWh.

The ministry revised its forecast downward for seven of Japan’s ten TSO areas: Hokkaido (-70% vs. original forecast), Tohoku (-18%), Chubu (-40%), Chugoku (-37%), Shikoku (-13%), Kyushu (-3%), and Okinawa (-65%).

Lower than expected renewable actual generation and newly installed renewable generation capacity are among the main reasons for the lower curtailment and forecast revision cited by METI. Other reasons include higher utilization of cross-regional interconnectors, in particular for transmitting power out of Chugoku, and a decrease in available dispatchable capacity.

Kansai is the only area that saw an upward adjustment to 170GWh, more than double the originally forecasted 80GWh. It is also the only area where actual curtailment to date already exceeded the original forecast driven by, among other factors, a revised nuclear power plant maintenance schedule.

The forecast for Hokuriku and Tokyo was kept flat at 20GWh and no curtailment, respectively.

Further details about this topic will be discussed in the October 2024 issue of The Japan Power Industry Executive report.

Correction (September 25, 2024): An earlier version of this story incorrectly indicated the revision for Kyushu to be -60% and for Okinawa to be -66%. The correct values are -3% and -65%, respectively.

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